Why buy more gold

Threats to my portfolio are everywhere. Back in the spring, I put my money where my mouth was and bought some gold via the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund Not a huge position, but just under 2% of my well-diversified portfolio. I didn’t buy because I heard people talking about it on CNBC or Fox Business (an old portfolio-manager boss convinced me years ago that financial TV channels are a waste of time), or because I got a case of FOMO from hearing other people talk about it. That’s not the way to invest, either.
My rationale was this: We’re in a risk-off world. It’s true today and likely will remain so for the near term. Threats to my portfolio are everywhere. Here are four: 1. Stock prices are crazy high. I cite two metrics to which I pay close attention. The first is the famed “Buffett indicator” — the ratio of the total U.S. stock market to gross domestic product — which suggests that U.S. stocks are “strongly overvalued.” The second is the Shiller CAPE ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, a valuation measure developed by Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller that divides the current price of the S&P 500 by the average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. The formula is complicated, but the analysis is clear: Stocks are quite risky today. Aren’t gasoline prices down? Yup. Gas always plunges when the economy is troubled. 2. Inflation is rising. I’m skeptical of Trump administration data that claims inflation is under control. How would they know? The government is shut down and all the data crunchers that haven’t been fired have been furloughed. The price of coffee or a hamburger, my soaring electric bill and a stroll through the aisles of Walmart are all the proof I need. But aren’t gasoline prices down? Yup. Gas always plunges when the economy is troubled, like during the pandemic, when oil briefly went to negative $37. That’s not a misprint. HON BRIAN SCAVO

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